Ryanggang explosion
This article deals with a current or ongoing event. Information may change rapidly as the event progresses.
On September 9 2004, there was an explosion large enough to cause a mushroom cloud in North Korea's northernmost province of Ryanggang. The cause of the blast is the subject of speculation. There are many political implications surrounding potential causes of the blast and the secrecy of the North Korean government about it.
The explosion
The explosion was located near the town of Yongjo-ri in the county of Kimhyŏngjik in Ryanggang. This is in a mountainous region, about 1.5 km above sea level. The explosion was about 30 km from the border with China. The area contains several military installations, including munitions factories and a secret underground military base suspected to contain a uranium enrichment plant. The Yongjori Missile Base was 10 km northeast of the explosion.
There were actually two explosions detected seismically. The first occurred at 23:00 Korea Standard Time (UTC +9) on September 8 2004, and the second at 01:00 on September 9 2004. The second was larger. The date, September 9 2004, was the 56th anniversary of the formation of North Korea. (Note: the provenance of this seismic data is in question; see the talk page. A definitive source for seismic analysis would be particularly useful.)
The incident created a large mushroom cloud, 3.5 km to 4 km (2 miles to 2.5 miles) in diameter, which was observed by a reconnaissance satellite at 11:00 on September 9 2004. A crater resulting from the explosion was also imaged by satellite.
Reporting
The incident wasn't reported internationally until September 12 2004, when the South Korean news agency Yonhap cited a source in Beijing, China, which said a mushroom cloud had been seen. Suspicion is raised by the fact that there was no mention of the explosion on internal North Korean media. North Korean news is little more than a mouthpiece for the ruling party, so unfavourable stories are commonly not broadcast at all; the Ryongchon disaster earlier in 2004 was reported only several days after the event.
There was immediate popular speculation that the explosion was nuclear in origin. United States Secretary of State Colin Powell said there was "no indication" that it was nuclear, and South Korea similarly said that it did not appear to be nuclear. However, a nuclear demonstration by North Korea might be judged likely to cause panic, so Western politicians and diplomats might see reason to suppress such news. It will be some days before the effects of a nuclear explosion would be unequivocally visible to apolitical authorities. It would not be possible to hide the nuclear nature of such an explosion for long.
North Korea initially denied that the explosion was nuclear. When prompted for an explanation, North Korea's foreign minister, Paek Nam-sun, officially stated that the explosion "was in fact the deliberate demolition of a mountain as part of a huge hydroelectric project". North Korea announced on September 13 2004 that the British ambassador, David Slinn, would be permitted to visit the site.
On September 17, South Korean Vice Minister of unification nuclear weapon test or demonstration. There was recent intelligence that North Korea might have been planning its first nuclear bomb test, and the significant date lends credence to this theory. However, it would be strange for North Korea to then deny it, and international officials have said that it does not appear to have been a nuclear explosion.
- A nuclear accident. Likewise, it has been denied that the explosion was nuclear.
- A large chemical explosive blast, to calibrate for a later nuclear test.
- The United States National Security Advisor, Condoleeza Rice, said "maybe it was ... some kind of forest fire". The Yonhap news agency also quoted a source suggesting a forest fire. However, forest fires don't leave craters or cause significant seismic events. (Although a forest fire could possibly be a cause or effect of an explosion.)
- A device similar to the American Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb (MOAB) could produce a mushroom cloud of about the same size that was reported. This is known from a test of the MOAB in Florida in 2003.
- Explosion of a munitions dump or of explosives in a munitions factory.
- Failure of a missile engine during test. This seems unlikely to produce such a large explosion on its own.
Many of these theories have difficulty accounting for the seismic activity two hours before the main blast. If the earlier activity is indeed connected, this seems suggestive of the explosion being unintended by North Korea, meaning that it was either accidental or caused by enemy action. Both of these theories are viable. North Korea's failing economy has made its industry accident-prone, as seen in the Ryongchon disaster earlier in 2004. Also, it has plenty of enemies who would be pleased by the destruction of a suspected uranium enrichment plant. Enemy action could even result from a power struggle within North Korea.
