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The date for Ireland's next presidential election has been set as 22 October, 2004. However, nominations close on 1 October, and in the event that only one candidate has been nominated by that date then no poll will take place.
The campaign provisionally started with the announcement in early 2003 that the Irish Labour Party will contest the election, even if the outgoing and popular current president, Mary McAleese, sought a second term. However, speaking on RTÉ's The Week in Politics programme in November 2003, Labour leader Pat Rabbitte failed when challenged to repeat the statement that the party will contest the election irrespective of McAleese's decision. On 16 September, after their two day conference, the Labour party finally decided that they would not be running a candidate.
Following her defeat in the European Parliament election of June 2004, Dana Rosemary Scallon indicated that she may also run as a presidential candidate on a platform of opposition to the adoption of the proposed European Union constitution.
On 13 September 2004, Eamon Ryan of the Green Party announced that he intended to suggest that his party nominate him as a candidate. However on 18 September he withdrew his candidacy after failing to secure the necessary number of nominations. Also on 13 September former Irish local election candidate and returned Irish emigrant Kevin Lee also announced that he was seeking a nomination, in an interview on Livelive on RTE Radio 1.
Michael D. Higgins, of the Labour Party indicated on 15 September that he was in favour of running for the office. Later that day the Labour Parliamentary Party expressed its opinion that the party should not run a candidate. The final decision was made by the National Executive Committee of the party, which on the 16 September, decided by one vote not to run a candidate.
Fianna Fáil is supporting President McAleese's bid for a second term. Technically, however, President McAleese nominated herself rather than seek a nomination from Fianna Fáil.
Fine Gael is also supporting President McAleese's bid for a second term.
In early 2003 Labour stated that irrespective of the attitudes of other parties and even in the event of President McAleese seeking a second term, the party would run a candidate. However party leader Pat Rabbitte appeared less committed in a television interview in November 2003, pointing out that all its attentions were focused on the two Irish elections already guaranteed in 2004, the european elections and the local elections to be held on 11 June. Following the significant losses of the ruling Fianna Fáil party in these elections, Labour sources have suggested the presidential election should not be contested, if it were to allow a decisive Fianna Fáil victory so soon after earlier election woes. On 16 September, the party's Parliamentary Party recommended against running a candidate. Possible options were:
The final decision was taken by the party's executive body, the National Executive, on 16 September 2004. In a surprising tight vote, the party's executive decided against running Michael D. by a majority of just one, even though the party leader and parliamentary party had come out strongly against running a candidate.
Sinn Féin is also supporting President McAleese's bid for a second term.
The Green Party may ask some of the independent TDs and/or senators to support Eamon Ryan as a presidential candidate. Alternatively the Independents could nominate an independent candidate, although they would have difficulty securing the support of the necessary twenty TDs and/or senators . Possible candidates include:
It is also possible for a candidate to be nominated by four local councils. Dana Rosemary Scallon and Derek Nally were nominated in this fashion in 1997, the first time the procedure had been successfully used. The possible candidates listed under the heading "Independents", in particular Lee and Scallon, can be considered potential candidates for local council nomination.
The electoral wins in contested polls are as follows
Only one contest took place involving a sitting president. In 1966 President de Valera defeated Fine Gael's Tom O'Higgins by less than 1%.
President McAleese is the likely but not certain victor in the presidential election. Given the near defeat of a legendary nationalist figure like Eamon de Valera, President McAleese cannot be certain of victory. In an electoral contest under the Single Transferable Vote (in effect instant-runoff voting since only one person can win), the greater the number of candidates, the greater the likelihood that an incumbent could be beaten, if all other candidates transfer their preferences to each other. McAleese according to opinion polls may go into the election with a popularity level in excess of 80%. However, the current electoral unpopularity of Fianna Fáil could hinder her electability. Nevertheless, with her popularity so high, it will be extremely difficult, though not impossible, to beat her.
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