International crisis
An International Crisis is a crisis between nations. There are many definitions of an international crisis. Snyder [1] defines an international crisis a "...a sequence of interactions between the governments of two or more sovereign states in severe conflict, short of actual war, but involving the perception of a dangerously high probability of war".
Types of International Crisis
Lebow [2] gives a good breakdown of three types:
- Justification of Hostilities. One of the nations decides, before the crisis starts, to go to war and constructs a crisis to justify it. The pattern of justificaion is almost always the same: Rouse public opinion, make impossible demands, try to legitimize the demands, deny your real intentions then employ the rejection of the demands as a reason for war.
- Spinoff Crisis. The Nations are involved in a war or crisis with another nation or nations and this precipitates another crisis. eg: The Lusitania incident in 1915.
- Brinkmanship. Intentionally forcing a crisis to get the other side to back down. The Cuban missile crisis of 1962 is a well known example.
With the exception of a justification of hostilities, the study of international crises assumes that neither side actually wants to go to war, but must be visibly prepared to do so. In the words of Groucho Marx "Always be sincere, even if don't mean it".
Discussion
George's book gives a very good overview of the process and conflicting goals of crisis management as well as many examples. He discusses a number of:
- Offensive strategies: blackmail, limited and reversible response, controlled pressure, attrittion and fait accompli.
- Defensive Strategies: coercion, limited escalation, tit-for-tat, test of capabilites, 'drawing a line' and others.
See Also
Diplomacy, international relations, bargaining, negotiation. list of events known as crises, crisis, crisis management.
References
- Snyder, Glenn H. and Diesing, Paul: 1977. Conflict Among Nations: Bargaining, Decision Making and System Structure in International Crises. ISBN 0-691-05664-1
- Lebow, Richard N.:1981. Between Peace and War: The Nature of International Crisis. ISBN 0-8018-2311-0
- George, Alexander L (ed): 1991. Avoiding War: Problems of Crisis Management. ISBN 0-8133-1232-9
