Hubbert peak
The Hubbert Peak theory, also known as the oil peak or peak oil theory, is an influential theory – part economic, part geological – regarding the long-term macroeconomic availability of oil, attributed to the geophysicist M. King Hubbert. The theory predicts that oil supply in a region will follow a pattern of a long increase of availability, a plateau or slow decline after the "peak," and a steep decline at the end. The theory has been a very good description of oil production in the continental United States, but is not consistent with overall world oil production in the last few decades.
The applicability of the concept is somewhat controversial, but the theory has many economic and foreign policy ramifications.
The theory
In 1956, Hubbert began to use a mathematical model to predict the rate of petroleum extraction. According to his model, the rate of production of oil is determined by the rate of new oil well discovery; a "Hubbert peak" in the oil extraction rate was forecast, to be followed by a gradual decline of oil production to nothing. This pattern's form is known as the Hubbert curve, which is a bell shaped curve; see that article for mathematical details.
The general trend of oil availability for a single oil field follows this pattern. Once an oil reservoir has been discovered, production is initially small because the required infrastructure has not been developed. Step by step, more wells are drilled and better facilities are installed in order to produce an increasing amount of oil. At some point, a peak output is reached not to be exceeded even with improved technology or additional drilling. After the peak but before the last drop of oil has been extracted another significant point is reached when it takes more energy to recover and process one barrel of oil than the amount of energy contained in this one barrel of oil. At that point oil is not worthwhile to extract and that oil field is abandoned. This is true irrespective of the price of oil.
Wider applications
Hubbert, in 1956, accurately predicted oil production in the lower-48 United States would peak in the early 1970s. U.S. oil production did indeed peak in 1970, and has been decreasing since then. According to Hubbert's model, U.S. oil reserves will be exhausted before the end of the 21st century.
Applying the Hubbert model to predict peak world oil production is more difficult. Reliable global oil production and confirmed oil reserve data is not generally available. As can be expected whenever there is no data consensus there is disagreement regarding the peak of world oil production. The latest applications of the Hubbert Peak model indicate world oil production will have peaked by, at the earliest 2004, or at the latest 2015. Recent studies indicate the peak will take place before 2008. Determining when oil production has peaked is difficult and not apparent until after current and potential future production is determiend to be less than in the past. North Sea production peaked in 2002. Advances in technology may lead to the efficient extraction of oil from reserves once thought unrecoverable.
Exacerbating the problem is the increasing global demand for oil. Population growth and increased global economic prosperity all affect global oil demand. In a recent year 25 billion barrels of oil were consumed world-wide, while only 8 billion barrels of new oil reserves were discovered. Even if there are temporarily sufficient oil reserves that could be used to meet rising global demand, there is an unknown limit on the increase of oil production capacity.
Effects of a world peak
If world oil were to peak, the inexpensive energy supply that promoted economic growth over the 20th century would cease. Cheap energy has been the foundation over which the demography explosion over the last century has been based, and any scarcity, if not properly substituted, will inevitably lead to major demographic changes.
The most recent time that production declined precipitously was during the Iranian Revolution, when supply was artificially curtailed for a limited time. Oil prices rose to what would be $80 a barrel in today's prices, and a world-wide recession followed.
Some believe that, if accurate, the Hubbert model portends drastic impacts for human culture and modern technological society, which is currently heavily dependent on oil as a fuel and chemical feedstock. Some envisage a Malthusian catastrophe occurring as the cheap oil finally runs out.
Others believe that the rise in oil prices would drive the replacement of oil with other power sources, such as nuclear energy, with the possible introduction of a Hydrogen economy to replace the current oil distribution infrastructure, and the replacement of oil as a chemical feedstock with better use of other hydrocarbons such as coal. Alternative there are a number of unconventional sources of oil such as tar shale or bitumen which could be used as sources of hydrocarbon.
See also
Further reading
- M. King Hubbert, "Energy from Fossil Fuels", Science, vol. 109, pp. 103-109, February 4, 1949
- Kenneth S. Deffeyes, , Princeton University Press, 2003, ISBN 0691116253
- Richard Heinberg, , New Society Publishers, 2003, ISBN 0865714827
- David Goodstein,, W.W. Norton & Company, 2004, ISBN 0393058573
- Stephen Leeb and Donna Leeb, , Warner Books, 2004, ISBN 0446533173
- Jeremy Rifkin, , Blackwell Publishers, 2002, ISBN 0745630421
- Paul Roberts, , Houghton Mifflin, 2004, ISBN 0618239774
- Paul Roberts, Last Stop Gas, Harper's Magazine, August 2004, pp. 71-72
- Documentary film
