Nikolai Kondratiev
Nikolai Kondratiev (1892-1938) was a Russian economist.
He proposed a theory that Western capitalist economies have
long term (40-60 year) cycles of boom followed by depression. These cycles are now called "Kondratiev waves". The supporters of the theory have identified the following Kondratiev waves:
- The Industrial Revolution (~1780-~1840)
- The Second Kondratiev Wave (~1840-~1900)
- The Third Kondratiev Wave (~1900-~1950)
- The Fourth Kondratiev Wave (~1950-?)
The theory is not accepted by many modern economists and, among ones who accept it, there is no universal agreement about the start and the end years of particular waves. It is thought that the Western world is either at the end of the Fourth Wave (which will end by 2010) or at the beginning at the Fifth Wave (which has started at 1990 or later).
During the Great Depression, his theory suggested that the Depression in the West would eventually correct itself and the Western Economy would again prosper. Stalin did not support this theory.
Kondratiev was arrested 1930. Stalin took a keen personal interest in Kondratiev's trial. As a distinguished economist with an international reputation Kondratiev was considered a threat to the regime. Kondratiev was forced to confess to imaginary crimes. Convicted as a "kulak-professor", he was banished to Suzdal in 1932. In 1938 he was issued a new sentence - ten years without the right to correspond with the outside world; this phrase was a code for a death sentence and Kondratiev was executed on the same day is was issued.
